2026 Southern California Fishing Forecast: The Largest Marine Heatwave Ever Recorded Meets a Developing El Nino

Something is building off the Southern California coast that we haven't seen before. The largest marine heatwave ever recorded in the northeast Pacific has been active since May 2025 and shows no signs of stopping. NOAA's latest ENSO forecast gives a 62% chance of El Nino developing by summer. And water temperatures along the entire Baja Peninsula are already running 8-10 degrees warmer than the same time last year.

If that combination sounds familiar, it should. The last time a major marine heatwave coincided with a developing El Nino was 2014-2015, which produced the most legendary warm-water fishing season in Southern California history. And the current setup may be even stronger.

The Marine Heatwave Nobody Is Talking About

Designated NEP25A by NOAA, this marine heatwave first emerged in the Gulf of Alaska in May 2025 and expanded rapidly through the summer. At its peak, it covered roughly 8 million square kilometers, about the size of the entire contiguous United States. On September 9, 2025, the northeast Pacific reached its highest average temperature ever recorded: 20.6 degrees Celsius, nearly half a degree warmer than any previous record.

The map above shows the maximum extent of the original 2014 Blob alongside NEP25A. The 2025-2026 heatwave is larger by area than any previously recorded marine heatwave in the northeast Pacific.

The heatwave decreased slightly in October and November, then swelled again in December along the coast. As of early 2026, it persists. Coastal SST anomalies are running 3-4 degrees Fahrenheit above average across parts of the northeast Pacific, rivaling the original Blob of 2014-2015 and the strongest El Nino on record in 1997-1998.

SST anomalies in the California Current ecosystem as of February 2026. The warm signal extends from Baja through Central California. Source: NOAA Fisheries.

El Nino Is Likely Coming on Top of It

La Nina has been weakening all winter and is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral within the next month or two. But it likely won't stop there. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and the IRI at Columbia University both forecast El Nino conditions emerging by June through August 2026, with roughly a one-in-three chance it becomes a strong event by fall.

This is the critical piece. A marine heatwave alone can produce extraordinary fishing, as we saw in 2022 when 81,000 dorado were caught during a La Nina. But when El Nino develops on top of an existing heatwave, the combined warm signal can push conditions into truly historic territory. That's exactly what happened in 2015, and it's the scenario that's developing right now.

The Early Signs Are Already Here

As of late March, the season is running well ahead of schedule. Water temperatures hit 68 degrees Fahrenheit by mid-March, a threshold that normally isn't reached until May or June. Yellowtail are already hot at the Coronado Islands and showing at Catalina. Bluefin tuna are present, with the Polaris Supreme returning from a three-day trip with limits of bluefin plus 90 yellowtail, 55 rockfish, and 50 lingcod in March. Along Baja, 60-80 pound yellowfin, quality yellowtail, and wahoo are already in the mix.

For divers working the kelp beds, visibility has been outstanding and water temperatures are making longer bottom times comfortable weeks earlier than usual. Our conditions tool has been tracking these anomalies in real time, and the data consistently shows temps running 2-3 degrees above seasonal averages at every monitoring station from Imperial Beach to Point Conception.

How 2026 Compares to Previous Big Years

Three decades of West Coast SST departures from normal. Marine heatwaves have become more frequent and intense since 2014. Source: NOAA Fisheries.

Here's how the current conditions stack up against the benchmark years:

2014-2015 (The Blob + Strong El Nino): The original marine heatwave paired with the strongest El Nino on record. Produced confirmed wahoo, 450-pound black marlin, giant yellowfin, and massive dorado runs. Species pushed from 600-800 miles south into San Diego waters. SST anomalies up to 7 degrees above normal.

2022 (Marine Heatwave during La Nina): No El Nino support, but localized heatwaves still produced 81,000 dorado, 83,000 yellowtail, and the first-ever dorado foamers in Southern California waters.

2026 (Largest MHW on record + Developing El Nino): NEP25A is larger by area than any previous northeast Pacific heatwave. SST anomalies already rival 1997-98 and 2014-15 levels. El Nino developing on top would compound the warm signal. Early indicators are running a month ahead of schedule.

The key difference from 2014-2015 is that NEP25A has not penetrated as deeply into the water column. That could mean less severe ecological damage, which is good, while the warm surface signal remains excellent for gamefish migration.

Species-by-Species Outlook

Yellowtail: Already running strong a month early. If warm water persists, expect an extended season from April through November with fish pushing further north into Santa Barbara and beyond. The Coronados cold-water rollover in early April has temporarily pushed some fish inshore to La Jolla and Point Loma, which is actually a bonus for shore-accessible divers.

Dorado: This is the big one to watch. If El Nino materializes and offshore SSTs stay above 70 degrees through summer, expect dorado to push into Southern California waters by July. With the heatwave baseline already elevated, we could see a season rivaling or exceeding 2022. Watch for kelp paddies forming offshore and flying fish activity as leading indicators.

Yellowfin Tuna: Already showing along Baja at 60-80 pounds. If the pattern holds, expect local yellowfin by June or July, possibly earlier. Strong El Nino years have historically produced the best yellowfin fishing in Southern California.

Bluefin Tuna: Already present and biting. Bluefin have been increasingly reliable in Southern California waters year-round since 2014, and elevated SSTs tend to concentrate them around temperature breaks and bait schools. The 2026 season should be excellent.

White Sea Bass: This is the wildcard. White sea bass prefer cooler water in the 58-65 degree range, and the warm anomaly could push their prime window earlier and shorter. The best WSB fishing may come in the next few weeks before temps climb too high. New and waning moon phases in April and May are the windows to target.

Wahoo: The species that only shows up during the most extreme warm-water events. Confirmed wahoo in 2015 during the super El Nino. If 2026 produces a strong El Nino on top of the heatwave, wahoo off San Diego or the islands is not out of the question by late summer or fall.

The Squid Question

Market squid are extremely sensitive to warm water. During El Nino periods, catches typically decrease as squid move deeper and their range shifts. During the 2014-2015 Blob, squid distribution shifted as far north as Alaska. If the current heatwave intensifies and El Nino develops, expect squid to become scarce in traditional Southern California spawning grounds by mid-summer.

This cuts both ways. Reduced squid removes a primary forage base for gamefish. But it also concentrates predators on remaining bait schools, creating hot spots where the fishing can be incredible. During squid-scarce years, anchovy and sardine schools become the primary attractors, and any kelp paddy or bait ball becomes a magnet for everything from yellowtail to dorado to tuna.

What to Watch For

The next three months will tell us whether 2026 becomes another 2022 or something closer to 2015. Here are the signals to track:

Offshore SSTs breaking 70 degrees consistently by June would confirm the warm trajectory. NOAA's monthly ENSO update will tell us whether El Nino is materializing on schedule. Flying fish activity and kelp paddy formation offshore are the biological precursors to dorado. And watch the Coronado Islands, the 209 and 277 Spots for the first yellowfin and dorado reports from the local fleet.

One risk to flag: the same warm conditions that produce great fishing also increase the risk of harmful algal blooms. The 2025 season saw a significant HAB event that affected marine mammals. If you notice discolored water or reports of marine mammal strandings, check local advisories before diving.

Bottom Line

The ocean is giving us every signal that 2026 will be a special year for Southern California fishing and diving. The largest marine heatwave ever recorded is still active. El Nino is developing. Early indicators are running a month ahead of schedule. The conditions that produced 81,000 dorado in 2022 and wahoo in 2015 are not just present, they may be intensifying.

Get your gear ready. Make sure your bluewater setup is dialed. If you don't have a float line and flasher rig, now is the time. Check conditions daily at conditions.spearfactor.com to track SST anomalies, visibility, and fish probability scores across 33 dive sites from San Diego to Humboldt County. When the water heats up this summer, you want to be ready to go.

Marine heatwave maps: NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (Blobtracker) and NOAA Fisheries.