El Niño 2026 Update: What California Divers Are Seeing and What's Coming Through Summer

California is in the post-peak phase of the 2024-2025 El Niño, with the marine heatwave that built alongside it still very much present in the ocean data. Water temperatures along the coast continue to run 2-4 degrees above the 30-year May average. Pelagic species are arriving earlier than historical timing. Storm patterns have been more variable than typical late-spring conditions. The combined effect on California spearfishing has been a season that looks more like June or July than mid-May.

This update covers where ENSO conditions stand right now, what divers are seeing on the water, and what to plan around through the rest of the 2026 season.

Global sea surface temperature anomaly map showing the El Niño signature in the equatorial Pacific - the warm-water tongue stretching west from South America that drives California's above-average water temperatures.

Current ENSO Status

The most recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO update places El Niño in a weakening phase, with neutral conditions forecast for late summer and a developing La Niña pattern possible by fall 2026. However, ocean temperatures lag atmospheric ENSO conditions by 2-4 months. The warm-water effects on California will continue well into summer regardless of the atmospheric ENSO state.

What this means in plain terms: the warm water is here for the rest of this dive season. The next ENSO transition will primarily affect 2027 conditions, not the 2026 season divers are currently in.

The marine heatwave pattern known as 'the Blob' in the North Pacific. Layered with El Niño, this is what produces years like 2026 where California water runs 3-5 degrees above the 30-year average.

Water Temperatures Right Now

Surface temperatures along the California coast as of late May 2026 are running well above the 30-year average for the date:

• Southern California: 62-67 degrees F (3-5 degrees above the May average)

• Central Coast: 58-62 degrees F

• Monterey Bay: 53-56 degrees F

• Northern California: 50-54 degrees F

At depth, temperatures are running similarly above normal - 30-50 foot depth temperatures are roughly 4-6 degrees warmer than typical for late May. The deeper temperature anomaly matters more for species behavior than the surface number because the fish hold at depth, not at the surface.

What Is Showing Up Early

The warm-water pattern is producing the kind of early-season behavior California divers see in strong El Niño years. The species arrivals are 3-4 weeks ahead of historical averages:

• Yellowtail: arrived early, with serious numbers at La Jolla, Coronado Islands, and Catalina front side already in May rather than the typical June ramp

• Bluefin tuna: first arrivals at offshore banks (Tanner, Cortez, the 43) in May, well ahead of the historical June-July window

• Dorado: increasingly reported in spring conditions, traditionally a July-August fish for California waters

• Bonito: showing up on the kelp lines weeks ahead of normal timing

• White sea bass: spawn window has been productive but variable with the swell-driven surface turbidity during the new moon period

• Sand bass and calicos: aggressive pre-spawn behavior earlier than normal

• Wahoo: not here yet but possible in late summer if water stays warm

Conditions Implications

El Niño years produce more variable and intense storm patterns than neutral years. The 2026 California season has shown the pattern clearly:

• More frequent and stronger NW swell events through spring (the May 16-17 weekend and the May 22-24 follow-up are the recent examples)

• Marine layer fog typically lasts longer into early summer

• Wind patterns more erratic, with stronger Santa Ana events possible into summer

• Visibility windows shorter and more concentrated - clean days are excellent, but dirty days are dirtier than typical

• Hurricane-derived south swells more likely in late summer

• Red tide events more common in warm-water years - California has already had multiple HAB advisories this spring

The result for divers is a season that produces excellent diving when conditions align but more frequent storm-driven shutdowns between calm windows. The divers who watch forecasts closely and pivot trip plans accordingly get the most out of years like this. The divers who book trips months in advance and refuse to flex with conditions get burned.

Species Outlook for Summer 2026

Based on the early-season patterns and the persistence of warm water, here is what to expect through summer:

• Bluefin tuna: expect a strong and possibly extended season, with fish closer to shore than typical. Some boats may produce bluefin trips out of Mission Bay and Long Beach without long offshore runs

• Yellowtail: expect to peak earlier and possibly thin earlier than normal. Target windows are now through July; August may see distribution shift north or offshore

• Dorado: warm-water years like this one can produce California dorado encounters. Watch offshore kelp paddies through summer, especially July through September

• Wahoo: rare California arrivals possible in late summer if water stays warm. Watch the San Diego offshore banks

• Halibut: should peak normally but worth watching as warmer water affects spawning timing

• Lobster: season opens in late September. Warm-water years sometimes produce variable opener conditions - watch for storm patterns into early fall

• Calico bass and reef species: should remain productive throughout summer, with possible extended fall activity if water stays warm

What This Means for Trip Planning

• Book pelagic trips earlier than the historical calendar suggests - the windows are open now, not in July

• Plan around storm patterns aggressively - calm windows are shorter, so when one opens, you go

• Watch the NOAA Climate Prediction Center monthly ENSO updates for any forecast shifts

• Build flexibility into trip plans - cancel and reschedule rather than fight bad conditions

• Watch California Department of Public Health for red tide and HAB advisories - more frequent in warm-water years

• Consider Mexican Pacific waters earlier in summer rather than late, when conditions there often stabilize first

• If you have only a few dive days available this summer, weight them toward June and early July when conditions and species typically align best in warm-water years

Where to Watch Next

The next ENSO update from NOAA CPC comes mid-June and will update the late-summer outlook. The transition from neutral to a possible La Niña typically becomes visible in late summer ocean data. By then, California water temperatures will already be returning toward normal as the seasonal cooling begins.

For real-time California conditions, the SpearFactor dive conditions tool tracks visibility, water temperature, swell, wind, and species-specific fish activity scores across 33 California dive zones from San Diego to Humboldt. Pair the tool with the monthly NOAA ENSO updates and you have the data needed to plan around a season that is moving faster than the calendar.

Where That Leaves the California Season

2026 is unfolding as a classic warm-water year shaped by the lingering El Niño influence. The diving is excellent when conditions allow, the species are showing up early, and the storm patterns are producing real disruption between the calm windows. The divers who watch the ENSO data and read California's specific conditions in detail get the most out of years like this one. The water is warmer, the fish are different, and the timing is shifted - but the opportunity for memorable diving is real for divers paying attention.

Image credits: El Niño SST anomaly map by NOAA (Public Domain). Marine heatwave SST map by NASA Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (Public Domain).